PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
June 30, 2027 11%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$81.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.4% / 3.7%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 3:51 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States.
- Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position.
- Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
- Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date??
- Polymarket prices June 30, 2027 at 11% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? resolve?
- Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.