PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
↓ 3.5% 100%+0.5ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$342.4
Liquidity
$232.6K
High liquiditySpread
0.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
13
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Nov 18, 25, 8:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
- The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027??
- Polymarket prices ↓ 3.5% at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? resolve?
- What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range.