KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Nov 14, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 17%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 17%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$18.4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 3:26 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?
KalshiWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiKevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
PolymarketRules
If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:President of the United StatesChair of the Federal ReserveThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCC-SPAN
- A "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal The following do NOT qualify: Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
