KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 15%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$20.3K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 3:26 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 1:27 PM UTC
Trends
15%
12%
2%
1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
KalshiKevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by which date?
PolymarketWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
- The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination
- This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt99%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.1pt1%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.1M
- 24h Vol
- $84.1K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase54.5%
- No change43.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed maintains rate46.8%
- Hike 25bps-4.0pt45.8%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt3.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.8K
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate43.3%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase67.3%
- No change30.7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jan 2027)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2028 at 15% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? resolve?
- Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2026.
- How is Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.