PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 2%-0.1pt
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15.6
Liquidity
$2.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.9% / 3.0%
Spread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
33
7d Change
-0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 1:35 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
KalshiJerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?
PolymarketJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
PolymarketDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWill Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?
PolymarketWIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jerome Powell federally charged by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 2% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Jerome Powell federally charged by which date? resolve?
- Jerome Powell federally charged by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Jerome Powell federally charged by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.