Current implied probability
No 93.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$424.7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 10, 26, 10:24 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
KalshiJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
PolymarketJerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?
PolymarketWIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?
Manifold MarketsDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsJerome Powell federally charged by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of a qualifying AI company by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying AI company is any organization that develops general-purpose artificial intelligence models, including, but not limited to, Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, xAI, and Meta.
- Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions at a qualifying AI company, including membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company.
- A role within a subsidiary or controlled entity of a qualifying AI company will also qualify.
- Merely investing in a qualifying AI company, entering into a commercial or research partnership, informally advising, working for an independent organization that collaborates with or providing services to a qualifying company will not qualify unless Jerome Powell also accepts or begins a formal role within the company’s corporate or governance structure.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026? resolve?
- Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of a qualifying AI company by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.