PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 11%-1.0pt
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.9
Liquidity
$5.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 12.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
21
7d Change
-5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 9:13 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
KalshiJerome Powell federally charged by which date?
PolymarketDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWill Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?
PolymarketJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
PolymarketWIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve.
- If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.1M
- 24h Vol
- $6.2M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+7.0pt63.4%
- Fed maintains rate-11.0pt33.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43.3M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt59%
- Fed maintains rate35.4%
- Cut 25bps-1.0pt2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $446.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+1.4pt6%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.6pt1%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+4.5pt70%
- September Meeting+8.0pt63%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
- Above 3.00%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $70.6K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Fed decision in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 11% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date? resolve?
- Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.