PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%+0.6pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$30K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.6% / 4.1%
Spread
1.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
-1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 4:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
KalshiJerome Powell federally charged by which date?
PolymarketJerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?
PolymarketWIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?
Manifold MarketsDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWill Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.1M
- 24h Vol
- $6.2M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+7.0pt63.4%
- Fed maintains rate-11.0pt33.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43.3M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt59%
- Fed maintains rate35.4%
- Cut 25bps-1.0pt2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $446.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+1.4pt6%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.6pt1%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+4.5pt70%
- September Meeting+8.0pt63%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
- Above 3.00%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $70.6K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Fed decision in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? resolve?
- Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.