Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
FedOne-OffInflationPoliticsUS Politics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 18, 26, 4:25 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🇺🇸📉 Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its October 2026 meeting?
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PolymarketWill the Fed raise the rate 50bps or more in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
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PolymarketWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate at least 3 times (in 25-basis-point increments) before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official FOMC announcements and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
- Check the Federal Reserve's official website for rate decision announcements.
- The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady within the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026.
