KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Hike 1-25bps 95.2%+1.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.7K
Liquidity
$86.9K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jul 22, 26, 9:00 PM UTCSep 10, 26, 12:14 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
European Central Bank rate decision in December
KalshiEuropean Central Bank rate decision in October
KalshiSwiss National Bank rate decision in September
KalshiWill the EU Deposit Facilities Rate be set above 1.9% at the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank ending September, 10, 2026?
ForecastExWill the EU Deposit Facilities Rate be set above 2.65% at the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank ending October, 29, 2026?
ForecastExWill the EU Deposit Facilities Rate be set above 1.65% at the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank ending September, 10, 2026?
ForecastExRules
If the European Central Bank takes the action of the named outcome at September ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Limitless — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 · 25 bps increase 98%
- Also available on Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 · 25 bps increase 100%
Open markets
Central Banks
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $512.1K
- 24h Vol
- $51.4K
POLYMARKETBank of Japan Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase-0.4pt97%
- 50+ bps increase+0.7pt2%
- No change-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: October 2026
- No change-15.0pt74.3%
- 25 bps increase+15.5pt25.7%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+3.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-3.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.2K
KALSHIBank of Japan rate decision in September
- Hike 25bps-1.0pt94.2%
- Hike more than 25bps+1.0pt1.9%
- Maintain current rate1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- H 0+1.0pt63.3%
- H 2525.7%
- C 255.5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
- Bank of England decision in September?
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jul 2027)
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in September
- Bank of Brazil decision in November?
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for European Central Bank rate decision in September?
- Kalshi prices Hike 1-25bps at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does European Central Bank rate decision in September resolve?
- European Central Bank rate decision in September is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026.
- How is European Central Bank rate decision in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the European Central Bank takes the action of the named outcome at September ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is European Central Bank rate decision in September listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Polymarket.