PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability25 bps increase 80%+0.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$862.7
Liquidity
$33.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 81.0%
Spread
2.5%
Tight spread7d Change
-7.0%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 10:53 PMSep 10, 26, 11:59 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
25 bps increase80%
Compare venues· 25 bps increase
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 80% | — | $862.7 | $33.6K | 18 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi64% match · auto | Low | 1% | — | $0 | $151 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
European Central Bank rate decision in September
1mo
1%
1%
1%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$151
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$863Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).