PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
25 bps increase 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
87 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$47K
Liquidity
$190.8K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 10:53 PM UTCSep 10, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Polymarket🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the House pass a cap on federal student loan interest rates?
KalshiWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for 25 bps increase is 100%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference 25 bps increase 100% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — European Central Bank rate decision in September · Hike 1-25bps 95%
- Also available on Limitless — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 · 25 bps increase 98%
Open markets
Central BanksPOLYMARKETBank of Japan Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase-0.3pt97%
- 50+ bps increase+0.6pt2%
- No change-0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.1K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIEuropean Central Bank rate decision in September
- Hike 1-25bps+1.0pt95.2%
- Maintain current rate+1.0pt1.9%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $84.7K
KALSHIBank of Japan rate decision in September
- Hike 25bps95.1%
- Hike more than 25bps+1.0pt2%
- Maintain current rate-1.0pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $172.6K
POLYMARKETBank of England decision in September?
- No change-1.1pt96%
- 25 bps increase+1.4pt3%
- 25 bps decrease+0.8pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- H 0+1.0pt63.3%
- H 2525.7%
- C 255.5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+4.0pt92%
- Hike 25bps+26.0pt33%
- Cut 50bps2%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43.8K
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
- Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jul 2027)
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
- Bank of England rate decision in September
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Bank of Brazil decision in November?
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
- Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
- Polymarket prices 25 bps increase at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 resolve?
- ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026.
- How is ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- Where else is ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Limitless.