KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Hike 25bps (99%)
Resolved: Sep 18, 2026, 3:46 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 18, 2026, 2:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Cut more than 25bps1%
Hike more than 25bps1%
Hike 25bps97%
Hike 25bpsWon
Maintain current rateLost
Hike more than 25bpsLost
Cut 25bpsLost
Cut more than 25bpsLost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of the named outcome at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
