KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Hike 25bps 84.8%+1.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.2K
Liquidity
$48.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 9:15 PMSep 18, 26, 2:29 AM
Trends
Rules
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of the named outcome at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference 25 bps increase 85% · 2 venues · 12 pt band
- Also available on Futuur — Bank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026 · 25 bps increase 72%
- Also available on Polymarket — Bank of Japan Decision in September? · 25 bps increase 85%
Open markets
Central BanksKALSHINumber of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 5 cuts+5.0pt45.3%
- Exactly 4 cuts-5.0pt37.9%
- 7 or more cuts-11.0pt7.4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- 24h Vol
- $11.7K
POLYMARKETBank of Korea decision in August?
- 25 bps hike-3.5pt72.3%
- No Change+5.5pt27.7%
- 50+ bps cut0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks?
- Productivity74%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence-9.0pt70%
- Independent / Independence70%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.2K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- H 0+2.0pt63.4%
- H 25+1.0pt22.3%
- C 25+1.0pt8.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBank of Japan Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.5pt85.2%
- No change-1.5pt13.9%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBank of England decision in September?
- No change92%
- 25 bps increase-0.8pt7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
- ECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Bank of Canada Decision in September?
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- Bank of Brazil decision in September?
- Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Bank of Japan rate decision in September?
- Kalshi prices Hike 25bps at 85% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Bank of Japan rate decision in September resolve?
- Bank of Japan rate decision in September is scheduled to resolve on September 18, 2026.
- How is Bank of Japan rate decision in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of the named outcome at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Bank of Japan rate decision in September listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Polymarket.