Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.2%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 6:24 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 5:55 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: September 2026
LimitlessWill Fed raise interest rates in 2027?
Manifold MarketsECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExRules
Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its September 15β16, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting.
- Resolve NO if the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it.
- Resolution will be based on the first official Federal Reserve monetary policy statement issued for the September 15β16, 2026 FOMC meeting.
- The size of the increase does not matter.
- Any increase in the target range counts as YES.
- Changes to forward guidance, the balance sheet, quantitative tightening, Treasury operations, or any other policy measure do not count unless the target range for the federal funds rate is also increased.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt51.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.2%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.3M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.8%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.7%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.6pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 53% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? resolve?
- πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its September 15β16, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting.