KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 2.25% 56.4%Leader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$327.8
Liquidity
$9.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 6, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:28 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?
KalshiBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Bank of Canada lower the rate 25bps at the October 28, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExWill the Bank of Canada lower the rate 25bps at the December 9, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExWill Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20?
FutuurBank of Canada Decision in October?
PolymarketRules
If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 1.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bank of Canada
- The “overnight rate target” refers to the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate, not the Bank Rate, deposit rate, Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, prime rate, bond yields, or any other interest rate.
- The market will resolve based on the Bank of Canada’s officially stated target for the overnight rate that is in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
- If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 1.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 2.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026?
- Kalshi prices Exactly 2.25% at 56% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026 resolve?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Bank of Canada overnight rate target on December 31, 2026 is exactly 1.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.