KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Hike 1-25bps (99%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 12:38 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 7:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Maintain current rate4%
Hike more than 25bps1%
Hike 1-25bps99%
Hike 1-25bpsWon
Maintain current rateLost
Cut more than 25bpsLost
Cut 1-25bpsLost
Hike more than 25bpsLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November
KalshiWill the Reserve Bank of Australia lower the rate 25bps at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
PolymarketReserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
PolymarketReserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?
Manifold MarketsWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of the named outcome at the September Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
