Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo change 80%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 6:06 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 3:25 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
PolymarketWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the September 29, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExReserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
PolymarketReserve Bank of Australia rate decision in September
KalshiReserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in September?
Manifold MarketsWill the Reserve Bank of Australia raise the rate 25 bps at the September 29, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the official decision on the cash rate target announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following its monetary policy meeting in November 2026.
- Increase: Resolves to this if the RBA announces an increase in the cash rate target.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this if the RBA announces that the cash rate target will remain at its current level.
- Decrease: Resolves to this if the RBA announces a decrease in the cash rate target.
- The resolution will be based on the official Media Release published on the Reserve Bank of Australia website.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November??
- Manifold Markets prices No change at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November? resolve?
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria