Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo change 77.2%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 6:06 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 3:25 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November
KalshiReserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
PolymarketWill the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the rate unchanged at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExWill the Reserve Bank of Australia raise the rate 25bps at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExWill the Reserve Bank of Australia lower the rate 25bps at the November 3, 2026 meeting? (RBA) (Interest rates) (Cash rate) (Monetary policy) (Rate hike) (Rate cut)?
ForecastExSouth African Reserve Bank Decision in November?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the official decision on the cash rate target announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following its monetary policy meeting in November 2026.
- Increase: Resolves to this if the RBA announces an increase in the cash rate target.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this if the RBA announces that the cash rate target will remain at its current level.
- Decrease: Resolves to this if the RBA announces a decrease in the cash rate target.
- The resolution will be based on the official Media Release published on the Reserve Bank of Australia website.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November · 25 bps increase 68%
- Also available on Kalshi — Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November · Hike 1-25bps 64%