KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above -9.0% of GDP · —
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Stored price
Above -8.5% of GDP 59%Market line of 7 lines
Above -8.5% of GDP 59%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.2
Open interest
$12.1K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Above -9.0% of GDPSpread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Sep 7, 26, 7:00 PM UTCApr 20, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above -9.0% of GDP
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -8.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:International Monetary Fund
- Important information: Negative values represent budget deficits. A higher, less-negative value represents a smaller deficit. For example, −4.0% is above −5.0%. “General government net lending/borrowing” is calculated as government revenue minus total expenditure. A negative value represents net borrowing, or a deficit, while a positive value represents net lending, or a surplus. This IMF measure may differ from budget-balance figures published by national authorities because of differences in government coverage, accounting methods or reporting periods. Only the value reported by the IMF for the applicable country and year will be used. The market will use the value initially published for the applicable country and year in the April 2027 edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook database, regardless of any subsequent revisions or updates. For countries whose government-finance data are presented by the IMF on a fiscal-year basis, the applicable period is the fiscal year identified by the IMF for that year.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -9.0% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -9.0% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -8.5% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -8.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -8.0% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -8.0% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -7.5% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -7.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -7.0% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -7.0% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -6.0% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -6.0% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -6.5% of GDP
- If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -6.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
