KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -8.5% of GDP 97%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.2K
Liquidity
$9.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 7, 26, 7:00 PM UTCApr 20, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
France’s government budget balance in 2026
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KalshiWill Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:International Monetary Fund
- Important information: Negative values represent budget deficits.
- A higher, less-negative value represents a smaller deficit.
- For example, −4.0% is above −5.0%.
- “General government net lending/borrowing” is calculated as government revenue minus total expenditure.
- A negative value represents net borrowing, or a deficit, while a positive value represents net lending, or a surplus.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US government budget balance in 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above -8.5% of GDP at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US government budget balance in 2026 resolve?
- US government budget balance in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on April 20, 2027.
- How is US government budget balance in 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.