KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 95%-0.7pt
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$54.4
Liquidity
$169.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
94.8% / 95.2%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 25, 26, 3:00 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
PolymarketWill more than 150k tech layoffs occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsMore tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
LimitlessWill there be >250k tech layoffs in 2027 according to Layoffs.fyi?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will conduct layoffs this year?
KalshiMore white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- Important information: This market was listed using an incorrect underlying value for tech layoffs in 2025.
- The correct floor strike is 447,000 layoffs, not 494,000 as currently specified.
- If the final layoff count falls between those two numbers, we will pay out $1.00 to all traders with an open position as of March 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
- The rulebook variable has been updated accordingly.
- Trades executed after this time are not eligible for reimbursement.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? resolve?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2027.
- How is More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.