What are the current odds for Will there be >250k tech layoffs in 2027 according to Layoffs.fyi??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56.2% as of October 27, 2026.

Will there be >250k tech layoffs in 2027 according to Layoffs.fyi?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 56.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Sep 9, 26, 2:09 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the total number of tech employees laid off in the calendar year 2027 is greater than 250,000, according to the official tracking data on Layoffs.fyi.
If the total is 250,000 or fewer, the market resolves to NO.
Source of Truth: The metric displayed under the "In 2027" summary (or the aggregate of 2027 calendar year entries if the website layout changes) on the Layoffs.fyi homepage.
Resolution Date: The market will resolve based on the data published on the site as of January 15, 2028, to allow time for late-December 2027 layoffs to be officially logged.
Any subsequent retroactive revisions to the 2027 dataset after January 15, 2028, will not be factored into the resolution.