PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
5.0% 10%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$171.8
Liquidity
$13.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
21
7d Change
+1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 2, 26, 6:54 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
KalshiHow high will US diesel prices get in 2026?
KalshiHow high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026.
- This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released.
- If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time.
- The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will US unemployment go in 2026??
- Polymarket prices 5.0% at 10% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How high will US unemployment go in 2026? resolve?
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is How high will US unemployment go in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage.