KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$264.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 2.0%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 8:30 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold Markets(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiFrance’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRules
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $655K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? resolve?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket.