KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 48%-1.0%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$673.6
Liquidity
$29.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Jun 9, 26, 8:30 PMOct 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes48%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 52% | +4pt | $673.6 | $29.1K | 25 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket92% match · auto | Low | 53% | +5pt | $0 | $3.4K | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Government shutdown by October 1?
5.5%2mo
-0.1%53%
+0.1%47%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$932.5
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$674Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations