Current implied probability
Yes 47%+0.1%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$3.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
40.0% / 54.0%
Spread
35.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+3.0%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 10, 26, 4:29 PMOct 2, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes47%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall92% match · auto | High | 52% | +4pt | $673.6 | $29.1K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 PolymarketThis page | Low | 53% | +5pt | $0 | $3.4K | 17 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
1.0%2mo
52%
-1.0%48%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$52.2K
24h Vol$673.6
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$6Jul 910d of dataJul 24
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.