Current implied probability
No 99%-0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$23.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 1.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 10, 26, 4:29 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Government shutdown by October 1? resolve?
- Government shutdown by October 1? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Government shutdown by October 1? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Government shutdown by October 1? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Kalshi.