PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability>2.5% 46%+2.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$7.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.1% / 7.9%
Spread
92.7%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.3%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 11:22 PMJan 29, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
>2.5%46%
Also available on Kalshi
US real GDP growth in 2026?
0.8%8mo
-0.8%13%
26%
5%
+11 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.4K
24h Vol$1.1
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026.
- Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
US recession by end of 2026?
$3.7KYes: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$9155.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
$300Yes: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
$155.34.3%: 32%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETUS real GDP growth in 2030?
$154.82.6% to 3.0%: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
Rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026.
- Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.