Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
58.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
North Carolina 98%+0.1ptLeader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$50.7K
Liquidity
$266.4K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 3:15 PMNov 1, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If the Indiana legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:state legislaturesSecetaries of Stateany court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in the statethe official election administration office of the state
- These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Indiana as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption
- For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO
- Clarification (09/03/26): Alabama’s May 2026 legislation providing for special congressional primary elections does not constitute adoption of a new congressional district map for purposes of this Contract.
- The reinstatement and subsequent use of the congressional district map enacted in 2023, including its use in the August 2026 special primary, do not satisfy the Payout Criterion because that map was adopted before Issuance.
- This market may still resolve to “Yes” if the Alabama legislature adopts a new qualifying congressional district map before November 1, 2026 that otherwise satisfies the Payout Criterion.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which states will redistrict before the midterms??
- Kalshi prices North Carolina at 98% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Which states will redistrict before the midterms? resolve?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Which states will redistrict before the midterms? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Indiana legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.