KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -25,000 94%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Liquidity
$13K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 13, 25, 2:00 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiHow many jobs added in September?
PolymarketWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.3% in September 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExWill the number of job openings exceed 7.6 million in September 2026? (Jobs) ()?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 5% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExRules
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:BLS
- The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
- If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is the named outcome as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 10000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 20000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Jobs numbers in Sep 2026??
- Kalshi prices Above -25,000 at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Jobs numbers in Sep 2026? resolve?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Jobs numbers in Sep 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.