KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 2.4% (45%)
Resolved: Oct 14, 2026, 2:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 2.3%82%
Above 3.3%1%
Above 2.4%45%
Above 2.6%1%
Above 2.5%12%
Above 2.1%Lost
Above 2.2%Lost
Above 2.3%Lost
Above 2.4%Won
Above 2.5%Lost
Above 2.6%Lost
Above 2.7%Lost
Above 2.8%Lost
Above 2.9%Lost
Above 3.0%Lost
Above 3.1%Lost
Above 3.2%Lost
Above 3.3%Lost
Above 3.4%Lost
Above 3.5%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiWill US core inflation be above UK core inflation in September?
KalshiWill September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsUS Core PCE inflation (month-over-month) — September
FutuurUS Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September
FutuurMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 2.1%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.2%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.3%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.4%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.5%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.6%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.7%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.8%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.9%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.9% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.0%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.1%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.2%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.3%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.4%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.5%
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
