KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
2.1% to 2.5% 15%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$62
Liquidity
$16.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 8, 26, 8:00 PM UTCFeb 28, 28, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US real GDP growth in 2034?
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KalshiWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 2.5% in Q4 2027?
ForecastExWhat will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2030?
KalshiRules
If the United States real GDP growth in 2027 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2027.
- The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2027 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2027 GDP in early 2028.
- Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- All stated bounds are inclusive.
- For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “the named outcome” includes 6.1%, and “the named outcome” includes 0.0%.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $772.5K
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.8K
- 24h Vol
- $31.7K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.1K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
- Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $94.6K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US real GDP growth in 2027??
- Kalshi prices 2.1% to 2.5% at 15% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does US real GDP growth in 2027? resolve?
- US real GDP growth in 2027? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2028.
- How is US real GDP growth in 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States real GDP growth in 2027 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.