KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above $31.2 trillion 98%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$27.4K
High liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 8:00 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If US Nominal GDP is the named outcome for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- This market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data.
- This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.
Open markets
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.2%98%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $291.5K
- 24h Vol
- $76.3K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes-3.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $21.3K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%+1.0pt99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $156.4K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+5.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+6.0pt95%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $62.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Above -25,000+1.0pt94%
- Above 0+4.0pt89%
- Above 10,00086%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.1K
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+4.0pt90.1%
- Yes-4.0pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $11.2K
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI core in September
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- China unemployment rate in September
- September 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US Nominal GDP in 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above $31.2 trillion at 98% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does US Nominal GDP in 2026 resolve?
- US Nominal GDP in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027.
- How is US Nominal GDP in 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If US Nominal GDP is the named outcome for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.