Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionLatin AmericaCrime & Justice3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.6%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 7:44 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- Maduro has been captured by US forces and is being sent to the US to face criminal charges.
- This market resolves YES if Maduro receives a pardon, clemency, immunity deal, or any other form of legal protection that prevents prosecution on the charges he currently faces.
- This includes any agreement that results in dropped charges, case dismissal, or immunity from prosecution in exchange for cooperation, exile, or other concessions.
- The market resolves NO if Maduro is prosecuted and convicted, or if he dies, escapes custody, or the charges are otherwise pursued without a deal granting him legal protection.
- Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Justice, presidential proclamations, court filings, or credible reporting from major news outlets confirming the terms of any deal.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government? resolve?
- Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria