Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 31, 23, 1:59 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?
Manifold MarketsPutin, Xi Jinping, or Kim Jong Un out by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketXi Jinping divorce before 2027?
PolymarketWho will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
PolymarketRules
For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
- If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-88b203241f22
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-5440920441a8
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.7pt97%
- September 30+0.5pt95%
+3 more outcomes
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
- Where else is Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Limitless.