Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 68.6%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 23, 1:59 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping leave China from 2026 to 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping leave the office of General Secretary of the CCP by which date?
FutuurXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketRules
For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
- If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-88b203241f22
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-5440920441a8
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2028? resolve?
- Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.