Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 5, 23, 11:08 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Xi Jinping leave China in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping leave the office of General Secretary of the CCP by which date?
FutuurWill Xi Jinping leave office in 2026?
FutuurWill Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Will he leave China (area of control at the time) from Jan 1 2026 to Dec 31 2028?
- i.e. if the PRC still controls HK, then it wouldn't count as leaving.
- If it controls Taiwan, that would not count as leaving either.
- The point is if he goes to a region which another independent government controls.
