Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
One-OffChinaPoliticsGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.8%
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216
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 23, 9:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
- If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
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