[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 20, 24, 7:27 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22790/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before 2030, the People's Liberation Army has been deployed to another country without that country's permission, resulting in the military occupation of a material amount of that country's territory by the PLA.
- Otherwise this question will resolve as No. For the purposes of this question the Republic of China/Taiwan will not be considered, even if it becomes a UN member state.
