Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
1.0% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineMiddle East5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 25%-1.0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$7.9K
Liquidity
$151.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.2%
Moderate spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
May 16, 26, 1:20 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3125%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
5mo
21.2%
13.5%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast11 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
4.5%5mo
-1.0%36%
-4.5%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.7M
24h Vol$60.1K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka2d ago
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka2d ago$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321d ago
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321d ago$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedsta25d ago
POLYMARKETNonedsta25d agoVolume trend
$7.9kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.