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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

0.3% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 33%-2.0%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$10.2K

Liquidity

$187.4K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.8% / 3.0%

Spread

7.1%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+0.7%

Market data

Updated 10 minutes ago

May 16, 26, 1:31 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
May 31
May 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3133%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
  • Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
  • Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.