Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December · —
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Stored reference
December 53%Leader of 6 outcomes
December 53%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$27K
Liquidity
$520.8K
High liquidityOpen interest
$725.3K
Bid / Ask
— / —
DecemberSpread
—
Comments
49
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 1:20 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 9:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
June 30Lost
May 31Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? · December 31, 71%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? · December 31 13%
