Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.6%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingMar 7, 26, 10:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Confirmed publicly and credibly, whether by Russia or another government
- Official Russian regulars ("under the flag of Russia"), not just troops of a not-Russian-state-official paramilitary group who happen to be Russian
- Intentionally deployed into Iranian territory, not skirmishing in and out from adjacent areas
- Combat roles (infantry, tanks, artillery, frontline drone teams, etc.), whether or not they are actually used in combat
- Humans that would be used in ground combat; naval forces in Iranian waters are not "troops in Iran" for the purposes of this market, nor are military aircraft stationed in Iran with their crews if they lack supporting Russian guard deployments
- May be special forces or similar that otherwise use irregular tactics while still being official troops; general purpose infantry don't exclusively qualify.