Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
109
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 13, 26, 4:44 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:42 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- ‼️This market resolves YES if the United States deploys ground troops to Iran.
- Trump has stated that military intervention "doesn't mean boots on the ground," suggesting that airstrikes, cyber operations, or other non-ground-based military actions would not satisfy the resolution criteria.
- The market resolves NO if no U.S. ground troops are deployed to Iran by December 31, 2026‼️.
- Nationwide protests began on December 28, 2025, when merchants at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their shops over the Iranian rial's plummeting value, and demonstrations quickly spread nationwide with grievances evolving from economic concerns to broader opposition against Iran's clerical establishment.
- Violence in the country has led to dozens of deaths and arrests.
