Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.5%
Forecasters
99
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 26, 4:44 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:42 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send troops to help Iran within the next 24 months?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- ‼️This market resolves YES if the United States deploys ground troops to Iran.
- Trump has stated that military intervention "doesn't mean boots on the ground," suggesting that airstrikes, cyber operations, or other non-ground-based military actions would not satisfy the resolution criteria.
- The market resolves NO if no U.S. ground troops are deployed to Iran by December 31, 2026‼️.
- Nationwide protests began on December 28, 2025, when merchants at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their shops over the Iranian rial's plummeting value, and demonstrations quickly spread nationwide with grievances evolving from economic concerns to broader opposition against Iran's clerical establishment.
- Violence in the country has led to dozens of deaths and arrests.
Open markets
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will America send troops to Iran??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will America send troops to Iran? resolve?
- Will America send troops to Iran? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will America send troops to Iran? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria