Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.4%
Forecasters
227
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 26, 4:02 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by which date?
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PolymarketIf Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.
- Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting.
- If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.
- I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).