PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 9%Leader of 5 outcomes
December 31 9%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$14.3K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
21
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 19, 25, 7:13 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
October 31Lost
December 31Lost
June 30Lost
March 31, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsWill the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS ground invasion of Iran before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive.
- This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
