PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 26%+3.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$61K
High liquiditySpread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.8 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?
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PolymarketWill any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?
Manifold MarketsU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify.
- Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
- Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
- Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Foreign intervention in Gaza by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Foreign intervention in Gaza by which date? resolve?
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Foreign intervention in Gaza by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.