Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 95.8%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 4, 24, 9:49 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.
- If any IDF presence remains, it will not be considered a full withdrawal.
- IDF troop presence within a buffer zone inside Gaza would still count as IDF presence in Gaza.
- I will not bet on this market.
Open markets
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+5 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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+17 more outcomes
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+7 more outcomes
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- September 30-4.0pt75%
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+2 more outcomes
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- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.