Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 94.3%
Forecasters
63
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 25, 5:57 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
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PolymarketU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketWill Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?
Manifold MarketsWill the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
PolymarketRules
resolve YES if the United States is formally given control of the Gaza Strip by Israel and begins administering it, even if they don't have complete control over it due to Hamas.
- if the announced date of control is after the end of the year, this resolves NO
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/3qIK2Y5W8Fg)
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolve YES if the United States is formally given control of the Gaza Strip by Israel and begins administering it, even if they don't have complete control over it due to Hamas.