Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2030 be less than 1.5 million?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60.5%
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27
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Jan 26, 25, 10:04 PM UTCFeb 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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As per the latest update from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the Palestinian population of the Gaza strip as of the beginning of 2025 was estimated at 2.1 million, about 160,000 less than at the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023.
- Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/1/gaza-population-falls-6-percent-since-start-of-war-statistics-agency-says
- A further decline to below 1.5 million over the next five years would indicate some combination of further civilian deaths and emigrations (voluntary or forced) on a large scale.
- This question will resolve YES iff reliable sources (the PCBS if it still exists, or other regional sources or news organizations) estimate the number of Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip as of the beginning of 2030 to be strictly less than 1.5 million.
- Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of this market, "the Gaza Strip" will be defined by its current geographic boundaries.
- If the territory of the Gaza Strip is expanded, population in the expanded areas (i.e., outside these current geographic boundaries) will not be counted.
