PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAugust 31 33%-11.0pt
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.1K
Liquidity
$23.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 7.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 6:44 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 3133%
Large trades
$1.2k74.9%POLYMARKETUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? — Novinii16d ago
POLYMARKETUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? — Novinii16d agoVolume trend
$6.1kJul 822d of dataJul 29
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On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify.
- However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
- Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify.