Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 14, 25, 11:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Google Trends] Will Pangram be more popular than GPTZero by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketWill the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the two highest spikes for "Gaza" as a search term exceed 30% of it's September 2025 value in Google trends.
- (Region is worldwide and resolution will be done by looking at a 15 month time span).
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]? resolve?
- Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the two highest spikes for "Gaza" as a search term exceed 30% of it's September 2025 value in Google trends.