If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsElection2026 US Midterms5d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.6%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 5:30 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold Markets🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?
Manifold MarketsWill the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29?
Manifold MarketsIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRules
If this market resolves yes before the 2026 midterms,
- https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-us-put-boots-on-the-ground?r=UGFwZXJCb3k
- and this market resolves Yes to one of the options involving D Senate,
- https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t?r=UGFwZXJCb3k
- this market will resolve Yes.
- N/A if the first market resolves No (or isn’t resolved prior to the midterms)
