If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51.9%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 5:30 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
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PolymarketRules
If this market resolves yes before the 2026 midterms,
- https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-us-put-boots-on-the-ground?r=UGFwZXJCb3k
- and this market resolves Yes to one of the options involving D Senate,
- https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t?r=UGFwZXJCb3k
- this market will resolve Yes.
- N/A if the first market resolves No (or isn’t resolved prior to the midterms)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate? resolve?
- If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If this market resolves yes before the 2026 midterms,