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Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
8mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCAlerts
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Forecast context
Current community forecast
Before April 2026 0%
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleLast updated: Apr 12, 9:16 PM
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026, 5:13 PM
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-
Started Mar 8, 2026, 5:18 PMEnds Dec 31, 2026, 5:13 PM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States takes control of Kharg Island for at least an hour before the specified deadline. Control is defined as US military forces establishing and maintaining physical presence on the island with the ability to direct operations. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets, official US government statements, or documented military operations. The market resolves NO if the deadline passes without such control being established.
- Kharg Island is a 5-mile strip of land that serves as Iran's most important oil facility, an export terminal in the Persian Gulf that handles up to 90 percent of the nation's crude. The island is one of the most strategically sensitive points in the global oil network. Recommendations to seize Kharg have been circulated within the National Security Council. The 2026 war began with joint airstrikes by Israel and the US against military and government sites in Iran on February 28, 2026.
- Considerations
- The island was briefly occupied in 1838 by the British to block the Siege of Herat but was soon returned. During the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, President Jimmy Carter was advised that seizing Kharg could provide leverage against the regime but chose not to act. President Ronald Reagan destroyed other offshore export facilities in the 1980s but left Kharg untouched.
- This description was generated by AI and slightly edited.
Topics
PoliticsAIGeopoliticsCommodities
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