Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
PoliticsCommoditiesAIGeopolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:26 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Before 2027 8.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before 2027 8.6%Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 26, 5:18 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:13 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States takes control of Kharg Island for at least an hour before the specified deadline.
- Control is defined as US military forces establishing and maintaining physical presence on the island with the ability to direct operations.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets, official US government statements, or documented military operations.
- The market resolves NO if the deadline passes without such control being established.
- Kharg Island is a 5-mile strip of land that serves as Iran's most important oil facility, an export terminal in the Persian Gulf that handles up to 90 percent of the nation's crude.
