🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.7%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 25, 3:37 AM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsDoes the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold MarketsWill the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPalestinians resettled en masse to Iran during Trump's term?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
KalshiWill the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the end of President Donald Trump's term on January 20, 2029, there is credible evidence of U.S. military personnel being deployed on Iranian soil.
- Acceptable sources for verification include official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, reputable news organizations, or other authoritative reports confirming such deployment.
- If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".
- Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a YES resolution, the U.S. military personnel must be fighting on the ground.
- Spies or CIA agents will not be counted.
