Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
CommoditiesOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastLatin AmericaPoliticsUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.5%
Forecasters
105
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 4:44 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the US military invades the Kharg Island, located 15 miles off Iran's coast and through which approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports pass.
- Invasion is defined as the takeover of the Island by deployment of troops from any party of the coalition or it's proxies, OR the surrender of the island to the US, due aerial-naval blockade/bombardment.
- The market resolves NO if this does not occur by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, BBC, etc.) confirming sustained US military operations on the island or its surrender.
- Temporary military strikes or damage to facilities do not constitute invasion/control, unless if there's troops on the ground OR total surrender caused by said strikes.
