Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
CommoditiesOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection21d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
D · —
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Stored reference
D 51%Leader of 4 outcomes
D 51%Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$45.3K
Liquidity
$1.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
DSpread
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Comments
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Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 4:22 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Market depth · D
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
- Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day.
- For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
