Will Treasury ease Russia sanctions beyond diesel (crude oil, gasoline or jet fuel) before Election Day, Nov 3 2026?
CommoditiesOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionRussia / Ukraine21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 10, 26, 4:02 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
On October 9, 2026, Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a Russia-related general license authorizing the sale, delivery and importation (including into the United States) of Russian-origin diesel fuel through April 7, 2027, after President Trump announced a diesel supply deal with Vladimir Putin.
- This market asks whether the easing goes further before Election Day.
- Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, OFAC issues a new general license, or amends an existing one, that authorizes transactions in Russian-origin crude oil, gasoline, or jet fuel that US sanctions would otherwise prohibit.
- The license has to be listed on OFAC's Recent Actions page: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- Does NOT count:
- The October 9 diesel license, or any extension or amendment of it that still covers only diesel.
